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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."